Forecasts & Expectations

Forecasts & Expectations

Forecasts & Expectations

Here I try to write down my thoughts on current market events and exciting developments once a month. I don't show all trends in my depot, but maybe you'll find inspiration here. This part is mainly about seeing for myself how well I anticipate trends and where I was and still am wrong with my assessments.
Here I try to write down my thoughts on current market events and exciting developments once a month. I don't show all trends in my depot, but maybe you'll find inspiration here. This part is mainly about seeing for myself how well I anticipate trends and where I was and still am wrong with my assessments.

Correction or bear market in the stock market?

30.04.2022 

Correction or Bear Market?

30.04.2022 

The following points speak for a low and upcoming recovery...
  • extremely negative mood on the stock market
  • first signs of easing in inflation
  • Lockdown in China should be relaxed soon
  • many companies (in Germany) with good Q1 figures but cautious outlook
...and the following points against it:
  • Tech stocks still highly valued
  • risk of stagflation
  • Risk that the Ukraine war will escalate further
  • Deglobalization leads to declining profit margins
  • Central bank tapering has only just begun
Conclusion:
It may or may not be that we have seen the lows. Instead of timing the market, I tend to try to invest in companies that have good business prospects in the respective environment. At the moment I'm therefore more heavily invested than usual in raw materials and energy stocks, have increased the share in companies that benefit from tourism and travel, and I'm also on the road in special situations. Because from my point of view this quote is still true:

"Time in the market beats timing the market."

-Ken Fisher-

The following points speak for a low and upcoming recovery...
  • extremely negative mood on the stock market
  • first signs of easing in inflation
  • Lockdown in China should be relaxed soon
  • many companies (in Germany) with good Q1 figures but cautious outlook
...and the following points against it:
  • Tech stocks still highly valued
  • risk of stagflation
  • Risk that the Ukraine war will escalate further
  • Deglobalization leads to declining profit margins
  • Central bank tapering has only just begun
Conclusion:
It may or may not be that we have seen the lows. Instead of timing the market, I tend to try to invest in companies that have good business prospects in the respective environment. For example, I am currently investing more than usual in raw materials and energy stocks, have increased the share in companies that benefit from tourism and travel, and am also on the road in special situations. Because from my point of view this quote is still true:

"Time in the market beats timing the market."

-Ken Fisher-

Inflation - here to stay!?

17.03.2022 

Inflation - here to stay!?

17.03.2022 

First of all, I have to say that I'm glad I don't work at the FED or ECB - because the challenge of answering this question (and what the right actions are) is super complex. So here are just my thoughts on which factors I see that currently or permanently have an inflationary effect and which I consider to be only temporary (without claiming to be complete or correct):
  • Co2 certificates (make energy permanently more expensive and have been externalized for years, i.e. it was not the companies that paid for the emissions but the general public)
  • Energy transition (I would also describe it as permanent in the sense of a few years, because the infrastructure has to be built first and the costs for this will also make electricity more expensive
  • Increasing demand for electricity due to electrification of transport (will also keep the electricity price high or cause it to rise)
  • Nuclear power plants shut down in France for maintenance/anti-nuclear accident (will come back online in 2023 and therefore only temporarily)
  • Monetary policy of the ECB (the unclear and confused communication does not help investors to position themselves clearly and the hesitant turnaround in interest rates endangers the goal of price stability - which may also be intentional...)
  • Wage demands of the trade unions (here I see the potential for significant wage increases - due to the lack of qualified employees, among other things, the trade unions are in a comfortable position)
Conclusion:
In my view, the days of low inflation in Germany are over. The hesitant monetary policy of the ECB is not suitable for combating inflation effectively. However, due to the base effects in energy and an expected relaxation in the supply situation with a view to 2023, I do not see any further increase in inflation rates. But it could well be 3-4% in 2023 - one more reason to invest your money in productive assets such as stocks.
First of all, I have to say that I'm glad I don't work at the FED or ECB - because the challenge of answering this question (and what the right actions are) is super complex. So here are my thoughts on which factors I see that currently or permanently have an inflationary effect and which I consider to be only temporary (without claiming to be complete or correct):
  • Co2 certificates (make energy permanently more expensive and have been externalized for years, i.e. it was not the companies that paid for the emissions but the general public)
  • Energy transition (I would also describe it as permanent in the sense of a few years, because the infrastructure has to be built first and the costs for this will also make electricity more expensive
  • Increasing demand for electricity due to electrification of transport (will also keep the electricity price high or cause it to rise)
  • Nuclear power plants shut down in France for maintenance/anti-nuclear accident (will come back online in 2023 and therefore only temporarily)
  • Monetary policy of the ECB (the unclear and confused communication does not help investors to position themselves clearly and the hesitant turnaround in interest rates endangers the goal of price stability - which may also be intentional...)
  • Wage demands of the trade unions (here I see the potential for significant wage increases - due to the lack of qualified employees, among other things, the trade unions are in a comfortable position)
Conclusion:
In my view, the days of low inflation in Germany are over. The hesitant monetary policy of the ECB is not suitable for combating inflation effectively. However, due to the base effects in energy and an expected relaxation in the supply situation with a view to 2023, I do not see any further increase in inflation rates. But it could well be 3-4% in 2023 - one more reason to invest your money in productive assets such as stocks.

7 investment theses for 2022

27.12.2021 

7 investment theses for 2022

27.12.2021

Here's what I expect in 2022:
  1. High energy/electricity prices (the gas price as a reference value for the electricity market is still high and I don't see any relaxation here, especially since the nuclear power plants in France will be switched off for a longer period)
  2. Rising food prices (because of the high gas prices, hardly any fertilizer is produced, which will cause the prices for fertilizer and thus food to rise significantly)
  3. Breakthrough for mainstream crypto applications (inspired by: https://finanz-szene.de/fintech/was-in-2022-auf-die-deutsche-fintech-branche-zukommen)
  4. Desire to travel instead of corona frustration (corona will no longer play a role in summer, as the 1000s will roll through Europe and in 1-2 months "everyone will be vaccinated or dead or recovered" - Jens Spahn...and historically the waves will also weaken after few years with other pandemics as well)
  5. E-car boost in the sales figures of the manufacturers
  6. End of the construction boom (due to high commodity prices and rising interest rates)
  7. Turnaround in interest rates due to rising inflation (high commodity prices, supply bottlenecks)
Here's what I expect in 2022:
  • High energy/electricity prices (the gas price as a reference value for the electricity market is still high and I don't see any relaxation here, especially since the nuclear power plants in France will be switched off for a longer period)
  • Rising food prices (because of the high gas prices, hardly any fertilizer is produced, which will cause the prices for fertilizer and thus food to rise significantly)
  • Breakthrough for mainstream crypto applications (inspired by: https://finanz-szene.de/fintech/was-in-2022-auf-die-deutsche-fintech-branche-zukommen)
  • Desire to travel instead of corona frustration (corona will no longer play a role in summer, as the 1000s will roll through Europe and in 1-2 months "everyone will be vaccinated or dead or recovered" - Jens Spahn...and historically the waves will also weaken after few years with other pandemics as well)
  • E-car boost in the sales figures of the manufacturers
  • End of the construction boom (due to high commodity prices and rising interest rates)
  • Turnaround in interest rates due to rising inflation (high commodity prices, supply bottlenecks)
Share by: